Why India Needs to Address China Before Dealing with Pakistan?
This is a counter-argument against Mr. Ranade’s view that India should resolve issues with Pakistan and only then engage with China, as expressed in the book Strategic Challenges: India in 2030.
It may seem that Pakistan is the easier and weaker problem to deal with, while China is much larger in defence might. But Sino-Pak relations need to be taken into consideration while dealing with the above question. How China views Pakistan is important for India in strategising its policies.
Why is Pakistan important for China?
90% of Chinese oil imports transit through the Strait of Malacca. During a conflict, if India chokes this strait, it poses a serious threat to China’s energy security. China devised a solution for its Malacca dilemma through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Through this, China can unload its oil at Gwadar and transport it to China via Pakistan, completely eliminating the need for the Strait of Malacca.
To be a true global power, China needs to dominate the Asian continent first, and Pakistan, being an Islamic nation, can be a bridge between China and West Asia. With the formation of an “Islamic NATO,” it is evident that Pakistan can be key to China gaining influence in West Asia. This is a strategic disadvantage for India, as China can use Pakistan to alienate India (another rising Asian power) from the Islamic world.
If China engages in direct military confrontation with India, it sends a negative image worldwide as an aggressor, which risks damaging its narrative-building efforts (take the example of the USA — its involvement in Iran shows it as an irresponsible nation). This caution is reflected in the Agreement on Confidence-Building Measures in the Military Field (1996), where both sides agreed not to use firearms within 2 km of the LAC. But China consistently uses salami-slicing1 tactics to provoke an Indian response. By using Pakistan as a proxy, however, it keeps India engaged in constant military confrontation (of course, there are vested Pakistani interests in being involved against India as well).
This is evident from China supplying defence equipment like the JF-17, PL-10, UAVs, and radar systems, and from its protecting Pakistan from global scrutiny at international forums like the UNSC and FATF over allegations of harbouring terrorism.
China understands that it cannot become a global superpower if there is another superpower in its backyard. Take the example of World War I and World War II, where the close proximity of superpowers in Europe led to war. The USA learned from this and never allowed any other power to gain influence in the American continent (the Monroe Doctrine). Russia, too, tries to use Eastern European countries as a buffer between itself and the powers of Europe. So, if China has to contain India, it will have to keep India engaged with Pakistan.
What does India have against China?
Development of the Great Nicobar project as a deterrent against Chinese misadventures is really important. “Whoever dominates the sea, dominates the world,” and to dominate at sea, the most important thing is an aircraft carrier. The Andaman & Nicobar Islands form a natural aircraft carrier at a very strategic location (and one that can’t even sink). This strategic advantage must be leveraged.
Improving ties with Afghanistan is essential to counter China’s BRI. This serves as a counter to China’s counter to its own Malacca dilemma and poses a serious threat to China’s energy security.
Whether we like it or not, the USA is a very important ally for India in balancing China. Although Russia is a trusted partner of India, Russia’s dependence on China, especially post the Ukraine war, raises questions about whether Russia will support India against China.
It is a widely accepted fact in the International Relations intelligentsia that India has missed the train to becoming a global superpower, but it remains a very important swing state in the rivalry between the USA and China.
Taking these factors into consideration, I differ from the view of Mr. Ranade, who argued that,
“India should ease tensions with Pakistan, resolve the Kashmir issue, and only thereafter look to improve ties with China.”
It is in China’s interest for the Kashmir issue to remain unresolved, because then India will have to focus its resources against Pakistan, hindering its own development. So, Pakistan should be dealt with, keeping larger Chinese interests in mind.